BTS has a 52% chance of winning VMA Song of the Year... Nominated in 3 categories

Attention is focused on whether BTS can receive the 'Song of the Year' trophy, a major main award, at the 2026 VMA. BTS, nominated for the title track 'SWIM' from their 5th studio album 'ARIRANG', recorded 52.0% support in the Gold Derby tally, ranking first in predictions for that category.

The competitive landscape is also intense. REI obtained 22.86%, Ella Langley 9.71%, and HUNTR/X 6.29%. In the analysis by Viberate, which places weight on music consumption indicators, HUNTR/X's 'Golden' scored the highest at 84.5 points in an evaluation combining streaming, YouTube, radio, and playlist data. Olivia Dean's 'Man I Need' scored 79.9 points, and Ella Langley's 'Choosin’ Texas' scored 79.6 points.

BTS was also named the most likely candidate in the 'Best K-pop' category, recording 78.62%. A total of three categories were named at this awards ceremony, including 'Song of the Year' and 'Best K-pop' which were first revealed on the 18th of last month, and the social category 'Best Group' nominees which were additionally announced on the 18th. In the 'Song of the Year' category, the music of 7 teams, including Ella Langley, HUNTR/X, Madonna·Sabrina Carpenter, Olivia Dean, PinkPantheress·Zara Larsson, and REI, will compete.

The presence of K-pop artists was also significant. Excluding the animation project vocal group HUNTR/X, there were a total of 19 K-pop related nominations, including KATSEYE. In 'Best Group', 4 teams including BTS, BLACKPINK, CORTIS, and KATSEYE were listed. BLACKPINK's LISA was named a nominee for 'Best Pop', 'Best Cinematography', and 'Best Editing' in addition to 'Best K-pop' for 'Dream', and KATSEYE was nominated for 'Best K-pop', 'Best Choreography', 'Best Group', and 'Song of the Summer'.

In addition, BLACKPINK's JISOO was nominated for 'Best Visual Effects' with 'Eyes Closed' featuring ZAYN, and JENNIE was included in the 'Song of the Summer' nominees for 'Dracula' in collaboration with Tame Impala. LE SSERAFIM became a nominee for 'Best K-pop' with 'SPAGHETTI' featuring j-hope. CORTIS entered nominations in a total of 3 categories, including 'Best New Artist', and Viberate evaluated CORTIS as the number one rookie (76.85 points). The 2026 VMA will be held at the Peacock Theater in LA on the 27th local time.

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